The AI Overlord Index, October 2026
Projected end of human control: February 2032
- Which of the 12 measures went up or down, and why
- The AI incidents that mattered in September
- The AI rules now in force, and how much they slow things down
- How the number is made, so you can check it
Get the full October report
From this issue
Four numbers behind the index
Each comes from public data. The report shows the trend behind each one and what it means.
What AI does on its own
AI agents opened 1.5 million code changes on GitHub in September
1 every 2 seconds
More than double last October, when they opened 621,000.
What AI can do
AI can now finish 20.8% of real paid freelance projects
1 in 5
projects done to a paying client's standard, against 2.1% last October. Shown, not scored: it is inside the index above.
What AI broke
25 new federal lawsuits named an AI company in September
6 a week
against 1.4 a week last October. The suits name OpenAI, Anthropic, xAI, Perplexity, Character.AI, Stability AI, Midjourney, Suno or Udio.
Money and compute
Big Tech spent $165 billion on buildings and machines in one quarter
$1.8 billion
a day: Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon and Meta together, 4.2 times the quarter ChatGPT launched in.
How we got here
From 0 to 38.4 since ChatGPT launched
0 is where each measure stood on November 30, 2022, the day ChatGPT launched. 100 is the point where AI would be in charge of it.
The AI Overlord Index every month, November 2022 to September 2026.
The five parts
Where each part stands
The index is five parts, each scored 0 to 100. The report gives each part its own page: the charts, the sources, and why it moved.
AI rules in force in the US, the EU and US states take 4.9 points off the total. The report shows which rules count.
The evidence
Three of September's incidents
Every fact in our register is quoted from its sources. The report picks the incidents that matter most and sets them against the numbers.
Inside the report
What the report covers
The countdown
This month's reading and the projected end of human control.
Where we stand
Every part against last month, and how the date is worked out.
What drives the dial
Each part's share of the total, every month since day zero.
The month in incidents
The incidents that mattered, each linked to its full record.
One page per part
A year of charts, plain-words explanations and the terms defined.
The brakes
Which AI rules are in force, and how much they slow things down.
How the number is made
Every measure, its source and licence, and the formula.
Questions
Before you sign up
What is the AI Overlord Index?
A monthly number for how far AI has moved into running things. It tracks what AI does on its own, what it can do, how much we lean on it, what it broke, and the money behind it. The name is tongue in cheek. The data is not.
Where does the data come from?
Twelve measures from outside sources, all public and all cited in the report: GitHub, OpenRouter, Epoch AI, the US Census Bureau, Indeed Hiring Lab, Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Stack Exchange, the AI Hallucination Cases database, NVD, the GitHub Advisory Database, US federal court dockets and SEC filings.
Is February 2032 a prediction?
It is where the index reaches 100 if it keeps rising at its pace over the last 12 months. It moves every month as the data does.
How is the number made?
Each measure scores 0 where it stood when ChatGPT launched and 100 where AI would be in charge of it. The five parts are combined with fixed weights, then AI rules in force take off up to 30%. The formula and weights are printed in every issue.
Who sees my details?
We do, and relevant suppliers, as the agreement box says. We email you about this report, and about each new issue only if you tick that box.
Can I get it every month?
Yes. Tick "Email me each new issue" and each month's report reaches your inbox. Stop any time from any of those emails.
Read why the index rose 1.5 points in September
The full October report: a free PDF, every source cited. Tagged for screen readers.